Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Barack Dam is leaking

I wouldn't want to be standing where that guy is standing.

Barack Dam is leaking - exactly as needs to happen if McCain is to win. It's happening 3-4 days later than I expected. This makes me nervous. Yet, the leaking is happening, and Barack has a problem.

Can tonight's infomercial plug the leak long enough for Barack to win? I just don't know. It could.

My best guess is that it will not - just as I do not see that Berlin helped Barack. The persuasive power of TV and of infomercials is waning. Barack on TV is a reminder that Barack broke his promise about public financing. Barack on TV psychologically positions Barack as the favorite and McCain as the plucky underdog. Everyone roots for the plucky underdog. No one roots for angry Michelle Obama.


Rasmussen Poll is suddenly within the margin of error: Barack +3. Rasmussen had basically showed an 8 point Barack lead for over a month. Rasmussen termed this a "stable" lead due to "stable" internals. Rasmussen showed a three point move over Sat/Sun/Mon, and another two point move yesterday. I don't really trust Rasmussen's numbers. However, the movement in McCain's direction has significance.

Gallup's Traditional has steadily shrunk from Barack +7 to the current Barack +3.
WMU/Battleground has Barack +3.
IBD has Barack +4.
Zogby has Barack +5 and "holding steady for now".

Ed Morrissey:
We talked quite a bit about polling at last night’s Talk the Vote event. All three hosts reminded people that Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan with eight days left in the race in 1980 outside the margin of error. Furthermore, the rising number of refusals — those who refuse to participate in telephone polling — make the predictive value of electoral polling more questionable than ever before. Michael Medved said that some pollsters report refusal levels as high as 80%.
Reagan decisively won the single Presidential Debate only 7 days before Election Day. His dramatic move was partly attributable to that. Still, big things happen in the final few days. In 2000, Gore made a gigantic move in the final few days.


Connected Dem Speechwriter publicly announces:
The Democratic Party has left me; I'm voting Republican.
Has written speeches for Hillary, wrote Edwards' concession speech, wrote Michelle Obama speech after the Dem Primary, wrote Barack speeches and worked for him this spring/summer in D.C. Senate Office. Lists several reasons. Dem condescension towards Joe the Plumber was final straw. Incensed about gender bias of fake controversy over Palin's wardrobe.


HillBuzz is humming with confidence that Obama is losing Pennsylvania. Hillbuzz detests the Socialist lefties trying to take over the Dem Party; predicts an unprecedented number of Dems are voting for McCain:
Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in Texas, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for Hillary and have spent many LONG hours with her in the trenches in all of those states. She’s smart, doesn’t BS, and never lies.

She says the same thing we do: John McCain will win Pennsylvania.

On November 4th, the news networks are going to be spinning and sputtering and playing catchup, but everything we see on the ground in PA is what we saw during the primaries: Obama has no shot of winning the Keystone State.

Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it. Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter....
it’s telling that everyone from Team Hillary that we know now works for McCain. ALL OF US. Whether they are open about it, like we are, or are working quietly behind the scenes, we can’t think of a single person we worked with on a daily basis for Hillary who is now working on behalf of Obama.

We all truly believe that John McCain will work more closely with Hillary Clinton in the Senate and make it a priority to team up with her on legislation than Obama never would. We also believe Obama winning this election means his supporters would actively seek to eliminate all Clinton loyalists from the Democratic Party, to consolidate his power base and purge anyone who is not 100% loyal to him. For obvious reasons, those of us loyal to the Clintons will not let that happen without a fight.
Union members repeatedly tell all of us that they are lying to pollsters because the unions have been polling these people — and the unions will threaten people’s jobs if they don’t tow the union line. So, the people lie when asked whom they are supporting. But, the unions can’t control who they vote for on Election Day. And that’s when things are going to get interesting.
What's happening here that’s not being reported is that “Reagan Democrats” who vote Republican whenever they feel that Democrats are out of touch, socialist, or too liberal are voting for McCain…and these people are being joined by PUMAs, DeMcCrats for McCain, Hillocrats, whatever you want to call them, who don’t like or trust Obama and who believe McCain/Palin would address the wants and needs of centrist Democrats much better than Obama ever would.

We personally believe this here at HillBuzz. That’s why we are doing this. We do not believe Obama will put the best interests of Americans first — instead, Obama will do what is best for Obama, the way he has always done. We do not trust this man or his socialist Kool-Aid and want no part of him.

In Pennsylvania, we are not alone.

The same people who ran the board for us in the primary — who assured us daily that the polls the media was pushing were wrong in claiming Obama would beat Clinton in PA — tell us on a daily basis that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. There’s a damn good chance this won’t even be close, if what people are seeing on the ground right now holds, and is indicative of the whole state.

DEMOCRATS are staffing McCain offices across the state. DEMOCRATS are phone banking and canvassing for McCain. DEMOCRATS are raising large sums to fund this last week of campaigning.


This has NEVER happened before — and the media is ignoring it.
There are two things Hillary Clinton and John McCain have in common that we’re thinking about right now: (1) both love America more than anything and truly want what’s best for the country, and not themselves and (2) Clinton has a framed photo of McCain in her office, while McCain has a similar photo of Clinton in his.

Clinton and McCain are friends for a reason — and we know they will work well together these next four years. We’re going to face some tough challenges in McCain’s administration, and we sincerely do pledge to all Republicans reading this that the bipartisan spirit we’ve fostered during this campaign working together with Republicans to elect McCain will continue in these next 4 years, because America needs us working together.

We are all Americans right now — working together to stop a socialist from becoming president and taking all of us down a very dangerous path.
Is HillBuzz leading with it's heart? Yes. Could HillBuzz nevertheless be right? Yes. The Barack Dam is leaking. It's a problem.


Parting paranoia: could George Soros negatively manipulate the Dow in the final days?

Naah. Right?


"Nah" is the correct answer, right?!

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