Friday, October 10, 2008

Potential for entertainment such as we may never see again

I been chillin' about politics. Other sites are covering "Barack was a Socialist in 1996" as well as I can (1,2,3,4). The guy who did that research has links to three archived 1996 web pages, from three organizations, which all reference Barack as a candidate who was aligned with the socialist The New Party in 1996. Now, Confederate Yankee has four more independent links referencing Barack as a The New Party candidate(link "3" above). Barack has previously denied he was a member of The New Party, which was begun by a University of Wisconsin Madison professor (naturally!) in response to the Democratic Party being too conservative. 15% of The New Party membership also belonged to a communist organization: Democratic Socialists of America. Maybe The New Party advocated more of a Euro Socialism than a hard Maoism, or not, but it sort of doesn't matter: even Euro Socialism is too far left for most American voters - which Barack knows, which is why Barack lied about having had ties to The New Party. Barack likely summoned up a lawyerly reponse which, on a technicality, is not a lie. However, where I come from: lie.

William Ayers openly "hates" capitalism. Black Liberation Theology preaches the American Dream is fiction, capitalism is slavery, the only solution is government redistribution of wealth in socially just fashion. Barack seeks endorsement of a group which, at minimum, is politically left of the Dem Party. Barack votes solid left in Springfield and then in D.C. Can we now put the fiction of "Moderate Obama" behind us? Which are we going to believe, Barack's empty words, or our own eyes? Barack is the furthest left major party candidate in history. If we elect him, our chickens really will come home to roost.

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The following is not blindly hopeful, and it's not professional. It is the honest opinion of a Homer Simpson sitting in an end zone bleacher seat and watching the ballgame:

McCain has a really good chance to win.

Here's why:

1) When it comes right up to nut cuttin' time, and cold steel nestles against skin: voters will take a hard look at Barack and say: "Do I really want to risk a guy with no resume as President?"

2) When late deciding voters learn more about Barack's history, many will not vote for him..

3) As economic fears ease, voters who abandoned McCain over economics will begin to return.

Re: #1: McCain gives voters a sense of safety - as if a tried and tested adult is in charge. I think sense of safety is essentially what happened when Hillary made her big rush at the end of the Dem Primary season. Hillary may also have benefitted from a "is that all there is?" Barack dynamic, as in:
"Does he ever get better, or does he just keep spewing platitudes? Is that all there is?"

A "sense of safety" thing happened when Gore closed with a huge rush in the last days before the 2000 Election. Late breaking voters trusted Gore more than they trusted GWB.

McCain does need to get better. He needs to zero in on a couple of messages. He is too unfocused now - his messages scattered and shallow. It might cost him the election. However, I expect he will figure out his key messages, hit those hard for four weeks, and win.

I expect McCain's win will be small, yet he will win pulling away. Polls may show him trailing by 3 with 10 days to go, by 2 with a week to go, by 1 with 4 days to go. If the election were delayed a week, McCain might win by 3. I expect him to steadily pick up votes as Election Day draws nearer and nearer. This is what Al Gore did in 2000. Bush was steadily bleeding in the last days before the election; Karl Rove was helpless to stop the bleeding. Gore closed in a sprint. This is what McCain will do.

I think McCain will get better. If Barack has any sense, he is sweating right now. If the electorate really wanted Barack, the lending crisis would've pushed him ahead by 15 points or more.

If Barack does lose, the recriminations and blame and accusations will be spectacular. It will be a vomiting forth of anger and vitriol such as we have never seen. It will pour forth as if from Linda Blair in "The Exorcist". There is potential for entertainment such as we may never see again. I will have empathy for some Democrats, but not for the Linda Blairs.

If McCain doesn't win: I will be fine. But I'd prefer he win.

2 comments:

Paul_In_Houston said...

"It will pour forth as if from Linda Blair in "The Exorcist". --- I will have empathy for some Democrats, but not for the Linda Blairs."

Aw, give Linda Blair a break; she was doing her job.

How many Democrats can we say that about lately? :-)

gcotharn said...

Thanks for visiting! Point well taken. Although, I do worry: exactly what do Dems believe their job is? Maybe, perish the thought: they are doing their job after all :)