Monday, October 27, 2008

McCain hasn't given Americans a clear reason to vote for him

edited after publication

Largely because he has not, I am shifting this blog's prediction from "McCain will win" to "McCain has a decent chance to win". "McCain will win" survived for 10 days in which McCain failed to refine and focus his message. His failure highlights a shocking lack of political skill on the parts of both Sen. McCain and his advisors.


The problem with Senator McCain has always been his failure to intellectually understand conservative doctrine. A primer on what John McCain does not fully understand:

-> Freedom is the best antidote to human misery yet invented.
Less government = more opportunity = less misery.

-> Multiple buyers and sellers regulate markets better than one smart person in a government.
More efficient markets = more wealth = less human misery.

-> The Laffer Curve works.
We remain in a Laffer plot position in which less taxes = more tax revenue for the U.S. Government.

The market is more efficient than the government. Therefore, the market can spend money and juice the economy more effectively than the government. The market can recover from down cycles more efficiently than the government. Think of the vast marketplace of Americans as representing the tiniest, fastest, most adaptable plethora of OODA Loops in existence. Think of the government as representing the largest, slowest, least adaptable OODA Loop in existence. Market vs. Government is no contest. Consider The Parable of the Stairs - including the additional tax revenue the stairs created for the U.S. Government.


If John McCain would read the above primer: he would understand conservatives better than before; he could articulate conservatism better than before; he might turn the tide and win on Nov. 4. McCain's problem is he cannot articulate, in an inspirational fashion, what he doesn't fully understand and logically connect from A to B to C. Joe the Plumber knows how to make the logical connections - which is why Joe the Plumber is good on TV. If Joe the Plumber were the Repub candidate, we would have an inspiring reason to vote for him:

Joe believes in less government, more opportunity, the efficiencies of markets, the Laffer Curve, and The American Dream. Huzzah! Vote for Joe!
What has McCain given us? I am not Barack. That's it. The rest of Sen. McCain's message is scattered all over creation.

It is argued that Sen. McCain simply cannot not win in this economic and political environment, and that in fact no Repub could. I disagree. Barack is such a flawed candidate that McCain should win.

If McCain loses, it will be b/c he did not emphasize reasons to vote for him beyond: I am not Barack. Here is the reason to vote which McCain should have been articulating for 6 months:
Freedom is the best antidote to human misery yet invented! Huzzah!
McCain could follow up by speaking enthusiastically about life, liberty, happiness, the reduction of human misery, less government, more opportunity, the efficiencies of markets, the Laffer Curve, and The American Dream.

Barack does not believe freedom and opportunity and markets are the answers. Belief in expanded freedom and opportunity delineates the clearest difference between Barack and McCain. Belief in expanded freedom and opportunity could have been a bright and clear inspirational reason for Americans to vote for McCain.


Arthur Laffer: The End of Prosperity

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