Wednesday, October 29, 2008

McCain has a decent chance; internal polls look good

Edited after publication

This election is uniquely influenced by 1) unprecedented voter interest and 2) unpredictable day to day financial events. Over the next five business days, stock market stability or instability may determine the outcome. A stable stock market could easily result in McCain victory. A McCain win ought not shock those who are paying attention.

Whether he wins or not, McCain should thank Sarah Palin for keeping him close. It's a joke that the intelligentsia are saying Sarah is a drag on the ticket. She has saved McCain's booty.

A.J. Strata: McCain's Internal Polls looking VERY Good

Anonymous pollster "absolutely laughs" at polls.

Could tonight's national infomercial push Barack over the top to victory? Why not? Barack will be reading a script, will be well-rehearsed, and will be unchallenged in his version of policies and facts. Accordingly: he will be fantastic. Tonight is another unique variable tossed in the mix.

Jim Geraghty's Obi Wan Kenobi source is the Deep Throat of the right blogosphere. It is odd that Obi Wan's phrasing sounds exactly like evil genius Karl Rove's phrasing. Obi Wan says the stock market will be the difference. If it goes unsteady, like at the end of last week: Obama wins. If it stays steady, McCain can win. Obi Wan:

The uncommitted vote is large and they want to vote for McCain.
But probably the least emotional pollster around [...] said, “They aren’t voting for Obama. They are angry about what has happened to their 401(k) and are voting against Bush. They actually favor McCain.”

That’s the question what will happen on Election Day—which uncommitted voter will show up?
[W]e have never seen a situation like this before. No one really understands it. It is just irresponsible for pollsters and networks to do their electoral maps without mentioning how McCain has already surprised them twice and that they are polling in an unprecedented atmosphere.
That’s why key Obama people are nervous. People like Ed Rendell ought to feel good about Pennsylvania. He doesn’t. He knows it can slip away. And don’t forget Obama lost primaries where he had an eight point lead.

What is justified is hope. A stable week economically and a little bit of a finish by McCain and it is doable.
Read it all. Obi Karl is shrewd, forthright, and knows something about campaigns catching fire in the very final days.

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