Tuesday, November 04, 2008

7:30 PM - FoxNews calls Pennsylvania for Obama

If FoxNews is correct, McCain is now trying to draw an inside straight, and the odds are strongly against him. He's competitive in all the following - which means "not ahead" in all the following - yet needs to win all the following:

North Carolina

So, a big task in those 5 states - which could happen for McCain - but the odds are maybe against it. If McCain pulls all 5 of those states, he then needs to win most of this battleground group of close states:

Missouri (McCain favored)
Colorado (Obama favored)
New Mexico (Obama favored)
Nevada (Obama favored)

So, as I type this, Obama looks great, and looks likely to take one or more of the top group of states and thus win overwhelmingly. McCain is trying to draw an inside straight. He's not dead, but the odds are strongly against him.


Some good news: Repubs look like they will hold at least 40 Senate seats, thus a unified Repub caucus could make a filibuster stick. This is huge. Dems in Congress - via picking off a couple of liberal Repub Senators - will still pass most everything they want - yet they will not pass EVERY SINGLE THING they want. Thank God.

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