Saturday, November 01, 2008

McCain Ahead!

48-47 in Zogby!

in one day polling on Friday, per Drudge Report.

I don't trust Zogby. No one does. But, Obama's Campaign famously fears the first headline which says "McCain Ahead!", so there it is up there above the champagne! Yee haw!

Bad for McCain: most poll margins are not 2-ish, as I hoped they would be at this point, but rather 6-ish. 6-ish is a lot-ish.

Bad for Obama: AP reports 1 in 7 voters are still persuadable. That is shockingly high. Most polls reflect extremely high % of undecided voters - often about 7%. These voters will break heavily for McCain. If they were going for Obama, they would no longer be undecided. Dick Morris thinks the undecideds will win it for McCain. Rove agrees this is problem for Obama, says this is the second largest margin of undecideds in modern times, trailing only 1988.

Bad for Obama, imo: the polls showing his big lead are wrong. Their demographic assumptions of energized Dem voters and nonenergized Repub voters are wrong.

Bad for Obama, imo: My soulmates at HillBuzz have convinced me: McCain wins Pennsylvania. Very bad for Obama.

Bad for Obama: Rasmussen says McCain now trusted more on taxes and the economy.

Bad for Obama: Gallup reports youth vote shifting in McCain's direction.

Bad for Obama(or a hoax, don't know which): anonymous Hillary supporter staffing Obama campaign details Obama Campaign's efforts to demoralize Repub voters, says Obama's internal polls show the race is very close.

Bad for Obama: The Dow was up 11.3 percent for the week, its best weekly performance in 34 years.

We shall see what happens on Nov 4. I'm awfully confident for a know-nothing amateur whose fave candidate trails in professional polls which must be proven vastly wrong. At this point it's extremely likely Obama will lead those polls on Tuesday morning. The polls will have to be proven extremely wrong, and I'm saying there is a decent chance of that happening. Chutzpah baby!

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