Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Media and pollster credibility on the line

and media will consciously and unconsciously try and demoralize you. It will not occur to media that they could be wrong in their prediction of an Obama blowout. Don't fall for their manure, which will go like this: "We're not ready to call Florida yet, but reports indicate it is looking very positive for Sen. Obama." Well: bull. If Florida was looking that positive the networks would have already called it. Wait for the offical network calls of each state. If it's an Obama blowout, you will know soon enough.

McCain has to win Florida and Ohio. Period. So watch for those results.

McCain needs to win either Virginia or Pennsylvania. These are East Coast states which should have results in relatively early in the night. If McCain wins one of the two, he's got a chance. If he wins both, it's time to really pay attention, because something interesting might be happening.

Beware exit polling. Such is conducted by grad students who tend to self select Dem voters to interview. Repub voters tend to walk past grad student pollsters. In exit polls, in attempts to counter this effect, polling firms consistently add points to Repub totals. Exit polls are nevertheless notoriously unreliable - as they were in the 2004 Election, for instance, when exit polls predicted several Kerry wins which did not occur. I have wondered if this dynamic adds to a Dem sense that Repubs steal elections. To wit: every four years, Dems see fabulous exit polls, then less fabulous actual tallies. Fraud!

There's a chance Ohio will be a gigantic mess and will delay a national election result until Wednesday. Of all swing states, Ohio is most likely to be stolen via Dem fraud: false ACORN registrations are waiting to go into ballot boxes as I type these words. You could paper the entire danged state with them. Ohio is the most likely state to prompt a lawsuit which could delay the national election result for weeks. It would be exactly Barack's style to try to steal Ohio, initially fail to do so, then sue on grounds the Repubs tried to steal Ohio.

The second most corrupt swing state will be Missouri.

There's a realistic chance (maybe 3% or so chance) the race could end in a 269-269 tie. If so, the Democrat dominated U.S. Senate would officially decide the election in Barack's favor.

Don't get too psyched about the election finally being over: this might go on beyond today. I kinda hope that happens, as it would mean McCain did not get blown out by Barack.

If McCain wins, media' and pollsters' tenuous credibility will have taken the severest possible hit, yet both industries will go forward from today as if nothing happened. It's the way those industries carry out their business, for whatever reason.

If Barack wins a blowout, my credibility will have taken a severe hit. Yet, since I had no credibility to begin with: Ha Ha! I don't care!

2 comments:

Bruce said...

Greg, On line poll during Regis and Kelley this morning...54% McCain...46% O man....problem @ church uploading sermons, so I am going to mail you a CD...Bro. French is at his best when he gives historical details of USA as a Christian Nation...FYI: did you know that George Washington personally added on his own 'So help me God!' as he was being sworn in?

gcotharn said...

thanks for the CD! Sounds like an appropriate Christmas gift for me. I love learning that Geo Washington tidbit. I like little stuff like that.