Gallup Expanded and Gallup Traditional both show Obama +10. These are long time, trusted, professional pollsters. PROFESSIONALS. Yet most of the nation doesn't trust the polls. Few believe Obama is ahead by 10. If Gallup is correct, and Obama wins by 10, 70% of the nation will be shocked.
I haven't studied Gallup's methodology. Yet, based on gut instinct and dubious anecdotal this and that: I'm saying Gallup is full of manure.
I'm acting like an apparent crazy person. WHY am I so confident? HOW IN THE WORLD am I loose and relaxed in suspecting I have a better read than Gallup? In this instance, I'm acting like a fool and saying: I've got a sense. I've been in sales a long time. I study people. McCain and Palin seem loose and happy to me; Barack and Biden seem tense. All four are attempting to convey a positive and confident message. However, from watching all four: I suspect things are going better for McCain and Palin.
I agree with Rove: you have to favor Obama right now, but don't kid yourself: the race is still open. That sounds exactly right to me. However, Obama by 10 points?!! Bull. Only a heavily-educated pollster could be smart enough to believe this nation prefers Obama by 10 points. What of Gallup Expanded and Traditional showing identical numbers?!! Bull. Only an over-educated pollster could input assumptions which produce that output. Gallup is training us to disbelieve it's results.
About Gallup, I feel like Johnny Cochran in Southpark's Wookie Episode:
Does that make sense? How can Barack lead by 10 if Chewbaka is livin on Endor with a bunch of Ewoks? That does not make sense. NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE! So you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin and conjugatin the Emancipation Proclamation: does it make sense? NO! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury: It does not make sense! If Chewbaka lives on Endor Barack cannot win by 10! The defense rests.
A good SNL skit: