Monday, November 03, 2008

If Dow holds steady today, McCain has a decent chance

I'm standing in surf, being battered and buffetted to and fro, and saying I predict McCain will win.

I will not shrink in the face of "professional" opinions. All I have is my opinion - and I will not kow-tow. I will say what I truly think: McCain wins. It's an amateur opinion, but by stars it's my opinion, and a man gets to have his own opinion (at least until Jan. 21). I say McCain wins Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, and those states catapult him to electoral victory.

I hear much talk that Barack has "many paths to victory, yet McCain has only one path." I hate to go all Forrest Gump and Confucious, but a man only needs one path.

Gallup, as if to flip people like me the middle finger, has raised their final pre election numbers from 10 and 10 to 11 and 11 (for Oct 31/Nov 1/Nov 2 period). How can Gallup control poll numbers, you ask? Answer: their numbers have everything to do with demographic assumptions which are built into their models. Like Johnnie Cochran below, I say of Gallup: THIS DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. It's difficult to imagine Barack winning by 11. If he does, most of the nation - both those who like Barack and dislike him, will be shocked. I will be at the head of the line of shocked persons.

At this point, most polls agree that Barack wins big (though by varying large margins); a couple of polls say Barack wins narrowly; and we the public get to guess which poll is correct. I choose IBD/TIPP, which came closest of anyone to correctly predicting the 2004 result. IBD/TIPP has Barack at +2, with 8.7% Undecided. IMO: 8.7% Undecided = McCain solidly in the lead. It's a professional poll! I'm standing with the pros!

What is the hope for a McCain victory based on?

1) Poll demographics and weighting are miscalculated.
2) Undecideds go heavily for McCain.
3) As much as 80% of homes have refused to take questions when pollsters have called. Homeowners who do take questions seem far more likely to be Barack supporters.

There are a few brave souls who predict McCain will win by a decently large electoral margin. God bless their courage. My heart wants to agree with them, but my brain is not ready to go that far in my prediction. They point to the high % of homeowners refusing pollster calls. This could mean poll #'s which are inaccurately skewed in Barack's direction - which, how else do you explain Gallup's Barack +11 number? If that number is correct, I'm the biggest cognitive dissonance sufferer in America.

Obi-Wan thinks poll numbers later this morning will tell us a lot. link

I'm waiting on this afternoon's final Dow numbers. Those numbers will have an effect on tomorrow.

Whether John McCain wins or loses: I've been heartened by the conservatives' reaction to this election. Conservatives have come out of the woodwork to overtly support Senator McCain. Conservatives have shown themselves to be good people with solid intellectual values. Conservatives have shown themselves to be large in number, and willing to engage in the cause of keeping America faithful to her founding values. This is why Barack has run as a pretend moderate - he would never have a chance running as a liberal. However the election result plays out, I am heartened and optimistic about the future. I am tranquil and at peace. Oddly, Barack's bullshit campaign theme is hope, and this long, long campaign has renewed my hope that America will not become Euro-Socialist Belgium. American Conservatives will fight over the long term to prevent that.

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